MODELLING MIGRATION HISTORIES

ITEM

Introduction

ITEM This example is concerned with individuals' migration histories within Great Britain, where migration is a residential move between two localities.

ITEM Boundary choice is crucial in defining what is a migration move (White and Meuser, 1988).

ITEM In this analysis migration is taken as an inter-county move. It is therefore concerned with moves which involve breaking away from social and community ties.

ITEM For a recent text on migration see for instance Boyle, Halfacree and Vaughan (1998).


ITEM

The data

ITEM The data are derived from a large retrospective survey of life and work histories carried out in 1986 under the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI), funded by the ESRC.

ITEM The data were therefore not specifically collected for the study of migration, but were drawn from an existing data set which includes information on where individuals had lived all their working lives.

ITEM The variables selected from the primary data set are those which are suggested in the research literature as important for explaining individual migration behaviour.

ITEM Temporary moves of a few months duration do not imply commitment to a new area and are not regarded as migration. Migration data are therefore recorded on an annual basis.

ITEM The respondents were aged 20 to 60 and lived in the travel-to-work area of Rochdale, just to the north of Manchester. (Rochdale was one of six localities chosen for the SCELI survey for their contrasting experience of recent economic change.)

ITEM As the analysis is concerned with internal migration within Great Britain, individuals who had lived abroad during their working lives are excluded from the data set.

ITEM The information for 1986 is incomplete and is therefore not included.

ITEM The data set contains the migration histories of 348 males during their working, or potentially working lives, starting from the completion of education up to 1985.

ITEM The data set is longitudinal, with one observation for each individual per calendar year. There are a total of 6349 annual observations.

ITEM The start year for the collection of data for each individual is different, but the final year is the same.

ITEM The response variable of interest is binary, indicating for each individual and for each calendar year, whether or not there was a migration move.

ITEM The explanatory variables are age, calendar year, duration of stay at each address, education, and information on marriage, children, employment and occupational status for each year.


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